Using the Correlation Matrix to trade like a FX dealer

forex correlated pairs

As an example of the positive correlation between these two pairs, you could open two long positions on the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD currency pairs. If the correlation is currently present in the market and if the pairs increased in price, you could potentially increase your profit. But, if the correlation was perfectly positive, separate long positions on different pairs might help to increase your profits – or it could increase your losses if your forecasts are incorrect. The strength of a currency correlation depends on the time of day, and the current trading volumes in the markets for both currency pairs.

forex correlated pairs

EUR/NZD has a strong and stable positive correlation with EUR/AUD; a strong but less stable positive correlation with GBP/AUD and a strong and stable negative correlation with NZD/CHF. Currencies that have close economic relationships tend to have the highest correlations with one another. Therefore, if there is no relationship between currency pairs, then the behavior of both pairings will be entirely random and unrelated to the other. The most correlated forex pairs usually share the same base or quote currency, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, or USD/CHF and USD/CAD. Trade correlation pairs in forex with eToro as your forex broker and gain access to 40+ currency pairs.

Inherent Risks in Using Correlation in the Forex Market

For instance, if you are bearish on EUR/USD, you should hedge your position by buying USD/JPY since they have a low correlation. This way, you can reduce your exposure to the euro and increase your exposure to the U.S. dollar. To diversify portfolios, investors typically look for non-correlated assets. For example, the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF are negatively correlated.

There is a discrepancy between the trends of the pound and the Australian dollar, which began in the summer of 2013 and lasted about two years. Traders who entered the Forex market when an inverse correlation between the two pairs occurred could not calculate a deposit that could withstand the drawdown from such a difference in rates. The above figure displays an updated correlation matrix, where the seven trading instruments listed above are compared. The correlation coefficient of more than 0.7 or less than -0.7 is significant, and so it is highlighted. For example, I brought completely different trading instruments from LiteFinance to the top 7 lines.

How to trade forex correlation pairs

Forex traders make use of a number of strategies using correlation. One such strategy involves two strongly correlated currency pairs such as GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The forex trader waits for the correlated pairs to fall out of correlation near a major support or resistance level. Non-correlated forex pairs can help traders create more balanced and profitable trading strategies.

Summing up, I should note that the correlation between financial instruments is not a constant factor. So, it is recommended to use it not as an independent type of analysis when making decisions, but as a kind of filter. Discover the range of markets and learn how they work - with IG Academy's online course. The currency index represents the evolution of a currency relative to the entire forex.


It should be stated, that perfectly correlated currency pairs are very rare, and there is always a degree of uncertainty when trading the financial markets. Commodities​​ or raw materials also have a correlation with each other as well as with currencies. In the table below, the data shows that during this timeframe, gold (XAU/USD) had little correlation with other major currencies. However, it does indicate that it shared a strong positive correlation of 81 with silver (XAG/USD). For someone trading gold and holding positions in other currency pairs, this type of analysis is important. Currency correlations or forex correlations are a statistical measure of the extent that currency pairs are related in value and will move together.

What's better to invest in: stock, crypto, or forex market? -

What's better to invest in: stock, crypto, or forex market?.

Posted: Tue, 25 Apr 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

To grasp the concept of forex correlation in currency pairs, the trader should first understand how market correlation affects the value of currencies. When two currency pairs have a positive correlation, they are positively impacted by each other and move in the same direction. For example, one of the most correlated currency pairs in the forex market is EUR/USD vs GBP/USD. If you open a long trade in both these currency pairs, a positive movement can potentially double your profits,

but a fall can also potentially double the risks as well. To survive as a Forex trader, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other, as well as the influences other asset classes have upon Foreign Exchange.

Currency Pairs that Typically Move in the SAME Direction

+1 refers to a fully positive correlation, which indicates that the price of two currency pairs is highly likely to move in the same direction in the long run. Welcome to the Forex Encyclopedia Channel of WikiFX, a professional forex knowledge-sharing platform. In this article, we'll talk about the meaning and significance of currency pair correlations in foreign exchange trading and how to take advantage of them. If you have open positions in the same direction on two highly correlated markets, then a loss in one will probably see you lose in the other one too, doubling your risk.

Positive Correlation – When two currency pairs move in the same direction – so if one pair moves up, then so does the other. For example, the correlation of EUR/USD and GBP/USD is positive because if the demand for U.S. Dollars increases, the level of both currency pairs will usually decline. Dollars falls, then the levels of both currency pairs will tend to increase.

They are not fully independent since the pairs move in the same direction. A foreign exchange correlation is the connection between two currency pairs. Furthermore, each correlation coefficient is color coded, where red indicates a positive correlation between the currency pairs and blue indicates a negatively correlation.

  • However, it's possible to make larger losses or have your hedging be less successful than expected when trading currency correlations if your predictions are off or the market reacts unexpectedly.
  • In the case of the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP, there is a negative correlation.
  • The correlation coefficient is a formula that tells you how much two markets are aligned over a given period.
  • The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are positively correlated forex pairs as the United Kingdom and the Eurozone have close economic relationships and geographic closeness.
  • You can find many websites that calculate the forex pairs correlation table.
  • Typically, correlation is used to confirm the correctness of the analysis.

If two currency pairs go up at the same time, this represents a positive correlation, while if one appreciates and the other depreciates, this is a negative correlation. To be an effective trader and understand your exposure, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other. Some currency pairs move in tandem with each other, while others may be polar opposites. Learning about currency correlation helps traders manage their portfolios more appropriately.

That is why taking a look at the six-month trailing correlation is also very important. This provides a clearer perspective on the average six-month relationship between the two currency pairs, which tends to be more accurate. If two currency pairs move in the same direction most of the time, there will be a direct correlation (with a number somewhere between 0 and 1). If two currency pairs move in opposite directions, there will be an inverse correlation (with a number somewhere between -1 and 0). Strong correlations usually have a number below -0.70 (strong inverse correlation) or above 0.70 (Strong positive correlation). In foreign exchange, two separate currency pairs may be correlated positively or negatively.

Best Forex Hedging Strategies 2023 -

Best Forex Hedging Strategies 2023.

Posted: Sat, 27 May 2023 07:00:00 GMT [source]

In this case, it is important to adjust the size of the positions in order to avoid a serious loss. With a coefficient of 0.95, they had a strong positive correlation over the past year, but the relationship deteriorated significantly in the previous month, down to .28. The upper table above shows that over one month the EUR/USD and GBP/USD had a very strong positive correlation of 0.95. This implies that when the EUR/USD rallies, the GBP/USD has also rallied 95% of the time. Over the past six months, the correlation was weaker (0.66), but in the long run (one year) the two currency pairs still have a strong correlation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *